Tsunami Landslide Storm

Tsunami Landslide Storm

Monday, August 18, 2014

Updated El Niño Outlook

 What is an El Niño?

El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, as opposed to La Niña, which characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. These concepts can have important consequences for weather around the globe.

When an El Niño occurs, the jet stream is shifted south from its position in the Eastern Pacific and can influence the path of storms, moving them right over California. The stronger the El Niño is rated, the farther east the dip moves, and in turn, the more south the storm track moves and more directly above the West Coast it will locate.

El Nino path



This track can bring large amounts of tropical moisture with it, hence the perceived relationship between El Niño events and rain, good snowfall, flooding, etc. It is important to note, however, that an El Niño is not necessarily tied to how much rain that we will receive (that is dictated by atmospheric storm patterns) but rather increases the probability that if the storms occur, they will pass over us instead of the Pacific Northwest and we will receive that precipitation instead.

Update on our local likelihood of developing one this winter:


Reports have been circulating in the media and rumor mill about a developing El Niño this winter, but its strength and likelihood are unknown and have recently been downgraded. Here’s the latest from our local Warning Coordination Meteorologist, Logan Johnson from the National Weather Service station in Monterey -
  • Water temperatures in the Pacific near the Equator have not continued to warm as would be expected in a developing El Nino. 
  • The probability of an El Nino developing this year has decreased to 65% during Fall and early Winter
  • Computer models have delayed the start of El Nino
  • No computer forecasts suggest a strong El Nino to develop.
  • Most models now suggest a weak El Nino if it does develop.
So the bottom line is that El Nino is less likely to develop, and if it does, a weak event is most favored to occur


Remember - El Nino is a poor predictor of rainfall in our area. The best link is observed during strong El Nino events. Drought conditions are likely to continue in our area and there is not currently an expectation that El Nino will alleviate or end the drought conditions. 

What to Do


·       Monitor the drought and El Niño situation and get ideas on conservation strategies at www.co.monterey.ca.us/drought

As of now, we are still in the greatest drought that the State of California has ever seen. Even if a lot of rainfall comes, it will not alleviate the deficits that the state has right now. The Governor has asked people to conserve water by reducing usage by 20%, and this can be achieved through more efficient habits.

·       Register your cell phone at AlertMontereyCounty.org to receive emergency notifications.

Alert Monterey County is the county’s emergency notification system, and now has the capability to register cell phones to receive calls, texts, and/or email alerts to as many places of interest in Monterey County as you desire. For example, if you live in Salinas, work in Pacific Grove, your child goes to school in Monterey and you have a friend in King City, you can opt to receive alerts for all 4 locations. This is vastly improved over the old style, which used the 911 database to reverse call landlines, where you were limited in the mode of reception and type of messages received.


·       Read the “Latest News” section on Monterey County Office of Emergency Services webpage  ( www.co.monterey.ca.us/oes ) for interesting and informative articles, as well as information on developing emergency situations in Monterey County.


·       Check your flashlight and battery inventory


Remember – Weather changes fast. Since we don’t know the extent of our storm season yet, get prepared to deal with power outages and the other issues that arise when the storms blow in so you’re ready this winter.