El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean
temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, as opposed to La Niña, which
characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. These
concepts can have important consequences for weather around the globe.
When an El Niño
occurs, the jet stream is shifted south from its position in the Eastern Pacific
and can influence the path of storms, moving them right over California. The
stronger the El Niño is rated, the farther east the dip moves, and in turn, the
more south the storm track moves and more directly above the West Coast it will
locate.
This track can bring large
amounts of tropical moisture with it, hence the perceived relationship between
El Niño events and rain, good snowfall, flooding, etc. It is important to note,
however, that an El Niño is not necessarily tied to how much rain that we will
receive (that is dictated by atmospheric storm patterns) but rather increases
the probability that if the storms occur, they will pass over us instead
of the Pacific Northwest and we will receive that precipitation instead.
Update on our local likelihood of developing one this winter:
Reports have been circulating in the media and rumor mill
about a developing El Niño this winter, but its strength and likelihood are
unknown and have recently been downgraded. Here’s the latest from our local
Warning Coordination Meteorologist, Logan Johnson from the National Weather
Service station in Monterey -
- Water
temperatures in the Pacific near the Equator have not continued to warm as
would be expected in a developing El Nino.
- The
probability of an El Nino developing this year has decreased to 65% during
Fall and early Winter
- Computer
models have delayed the start of El Nino
- No
computer forecasts suggest a strong El Nino to develop.
- Most models now suggest a weak El Nino if it does develop.
So
the bottom line is that El Nino is less likely to develop, and if it
does, a weak event is most favored to occur.
Remember - El Nino is a poor predictor of rainfall in our
area. The best link is observed during strong El Nino events. Drought
conditions are likely to continue in our area and there is not currently an
expectation that El Nino will alleviate or end the drought conditions.
What to Do
· Monitor
the drought and El Niño situation and get ideas on conservation strategies at www.co.monterey.ca.us/drought
As of now, we are still in the greatest drought that the State of California has ever seen. Even if a lot of rainfall comes, it will not alleviate the deficits that the state has right now. The Governor has asked people to conserve water by reducing usage by 20%, and this can be achieved through more efficient habits.
· Register
your cell phone at AlertMontereyCounty.org
to receive emergency notifications.
Alert Monterey County is the county’s emergency notification
system, and now has the capability to register cell phones to receive calls,
texts, and/or email alerts to as many places of interest in Monterey County as
you desire. For example, if you live in Salinas, work in Pacific Grove, your child goes to school in Monterey and you have
a friend in King City, you can opt to receive alerts for all 4 locations. This
is vastly improved over the old style, which used the 911 database to reverse
call landlines, where you were limited in the mode of reception and type of
messages received.
· Read the
“Latest News” section on Monterey County Office of Emergency Services webpage ( www.co.monterey.ca.us/oes ) for interesting and informative
articles, as well as information on developing emergency situations in Monterey
County.
· Check
your flashlight and battery inventory
Remember – Weather changes fast. Since we don’t know the extent of our storm season yet, get prepared to deal with power outages and the other issues that arise when the storms blow in so you’re ready this winter.
